Back in March ‘09 I wrote this for amusement. Now with the current data I’ve been asked to reprint here. (I wish all my predictions looked like this . . . note to self: reread chapter on luck in High Altitude Leadership).
In more than one city some CEOs feel differently about the recession. Being as pessimistic as everyone, I first thought it was an anomaly. But are there hints of success leaking into our pessimism?
I’m on several boards. At one meeting a CEO asked other members if they were feeling the trauma of the recession. Of course the CEOs related to the finance or real estate industries were hurting, but others shyly admitted they were actually doing OK. They had made some adjustments in hiring levels and programs but nothing tragic.
Then, recently when speaking to an audience in the Pacific Northwest I heard CEOs talking about when they should start spending again. They had plenty of cash! But are waiting for a green-light.
Speaking in other cities a mortgage broker reported having applications surge from 4 applicants/month to 8/ week!
Finally – gulp – my wife, in a family business called Ron Zimmerman Realtor, now runs into multiple bids on properties she’s securing for investors.
What? I expected to hear these stories 2nd half 2010. Not now. Maybe there’s more trauma ahead, especially as we bail out and bonus the incompetent. But what if people start spending cash earlier? What if the fear stopped faster than predicted?
